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 Topic: false positives
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 Probability of H.I.V. tests 2007-05-07 From Danielle:A medical test detects H.I.V. Among those who have H.I.V., the test will detect the disease with probability 0.95; among those who do NOT have H.I.V., the test will falsely claim that H.I.V. is present with probability 0.0125. Among those who take this test, 4% have H.I.V. The test is given to Lucille, and indicates that she has H.I.V. What is the probability that Lucille actually has H.I.V.?Answered by Stephen La Rocque. False Positives 2000-10-29 From James:A rare disease infected 1 in 1000 people in the population. A test for the disease is accurate 99% of the time when given to an infected person and also when given to a heathy person. Fill out a two-tier tree diagram and find the probability of the false positive(i.e the conditional probabily of being healty even when tested postive by the test) Comment on the result? ... Answered by Penny Nom.

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